What Options for Survival Does Iran’s Government Have?

This entry is part 4 of 6 in the series What Is Happening in Iran?

What Is Happening in Iran?—Part 4

iran-protests-tehran-2
Iranians continue to protest in Tehran and elsewhere despite arrests.

What Options for Survival Does Iran’s Government Have?


This post is part 4 of a six-part series on the current state of Iran and its church. To read the entire series now, click hereIf you missed any earlier posts, you can read them here: part 1, part 2, part 3.

The government of Iran (IRI) is going down with or without sanctions. The sanctions will merely speed up the process. The IRI has few options left:

Option 1

Try to reform itself. Reforms will not work because the leaders are too corrupt and disjointed to implement a comprehensive reform and the people of Iran will not buy into any plan that the government supports. The IRI has passed its window of opportunity when reform might have worked.

Option 2

Try to stifle the protest with violence. This option has a high probability of occurring. The IRI has shown that it has no respect for lives. When cornered and their existence threatened, they might easily turn to violence. Not long ago, a top clergyman said, “If we have to kill 1 million to keep Islam in Iran, we will.”

Option 3

Save themselves and let the regime collapse. It is very possible that those in power will abandon their positions and flee the country. Many have already stored their wealth in foreign banks, anticipating the day when they have to flee. The dollar exchange rate tripled recently because those in power were buying billions of dollars to send their wealth abroad. At this point, a military coup is also very possible. If this coup helps dethrone the mullahs and very quickly establishes a secular and democratic government, it could work.

Option 4

Negotiate with the US government. I believe negotiation is the number one option for the IRI and they will take it. Of course, they will not do this publicly. They do not want to lose the little respect and credibility they have before their people and the world by admitting defeat. They will ask for negotiations behind closed doors while at the same time bad mouthing the USA and Trump in public and the media.

 

The IRI has already started planning for reform (option 1). But they are finding fast that they are not capable of doing it and the people will not be fooled by it anyway. I believe that, very soon, unannounced secret negotiations between the IRI and the US will start (option 4)—if they have not started already. These negotiations may prolong the IRI’s existence for a time but not indefinitely.  Eventually, they will again try violence (option 2) followed by giving up power (option 3).

History is in the making in Iran. As the 40th year of the anniversary of the Islamic revolution approaches, we are seeing the end of this regime. Much is happening in Iran today politically, socially, and spiritually. I believe we will see a major change in Iran soon and it will be in weeks, months, but not years.

Location Iran. Green pin on the map.
Much is happening these days in Iran.

There is much news daily about Iran. Following the news carefully and being constantly and directly in touch with the people of Iran has given me a perspective that might be helpful to those who want to understand what is going on. So each day for the next week, I will provide a short commentary on What is happening in Iran.


Next up: How will a regime change in Iran affect the underground church? 

What Is the United States Doing about Iran?

This entry is part 3 of 6 in the series What Is Happening in Iran?

What Is Happening in Iran?—Part 3

Power of democracy

What Is the United States Doing?


This post is part 3 of a six-part series on the current state of Iran and its church. To read the entire series now, click hereIf you missed the earlier posts, you can read them here: part 1 and part 2.

Trump and his administration are following three main plans to push out the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI):

Pressure with sanctions. The US is putting more financial pressure on the already pressured government of Iran through sanctions and an oil embargo. Trump may talk of violence, but he will not enter into a full-fledged war with Iran because all he needs to do is just wait for sanctions to effectively destroy the IRI.

Approach Iran from a point of strength. Trump’s constant threat to engage in military action puts extra pressure on the IRI. Iran’s government knows its military is no match for the power of the USA and Israel. They know that if a war starts, their people will not support them as they did in the eight-year war against Saddam in the 1980s. Obama negotiated from a point of weakness: he begged Iran not to start a war and bribed it merely to slow down its development of nuclear bombs. But Trump approaches the IRI from a point of strength. Many Iranians living inside Iran are pleased with and support Trump’s approach because they feel Obama threw the IRI a lifeline to survive, but Trump has pulled it back.

Keep open the possibility of negotiation. Trump says he is open to negotiation but wants Iran to take the first step. Trump is a strong negotiator—as shown in his book The Art of the Deal—and knows the one who first breaks down and asks for a meeting has a weaker position in negotiation.

Location Iran. Green pin on the map.
Much is happening these days in Iran.

 


History is in the making in Iran. As the 40th year of the anniversary of the Islamic revolution approaches, we are seeing the end of this regime. Much is happening in Iran today politically, socially, and spiritually. I believe we will see a major change in Iran soon and it will be in weeks, months, but not years.

There is much news daily about Iran. Following the news carefully and being constantly and directly in touch with the people of Iran has given me a perspective that might be helpful to those who want to understand what is going on. So each day this week, I will provide a short commentary on What is happening in Iran.


 

Next up: Does the IRI have any options for survival?

What Is Happening with Iran’s Government?

This entry is part 2 of 6 in the series What Is Happening in Iran?

 


This post is part 2 of a six-part series on the current state of Iran and its church. To read the entire series now, click hereIf you missed part 1, you can read it here.

History is in the making in Iran. As the 40th year of the anniversary of the Islamic revolution approaches, we are seeing the end of this regime. Much is happening in Iran today politically, socially, and spiritually. I believe we will see a major change in Iran soon and it will be in weeks, months, but not years.

Location Iran. Green pin on the map.
Much is happening these days in Iran.

There is much news daily about Iran. Following the news carefully and being constantly and directly in touch with the people of Iran has given me a perspective that might be helpful to those who want to understand what is going on. So each day for the next week, I will provide a short commentary on What is happening in Iran.

 


Part 2: What Is Happening with Iran’s Government?

The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is in trouble. It is facing problems that cannot solve even if it decides to do so. 

The IRI has totally lost its credibility with the people of Iran. Nobody trusts the government anymore, and there is nothing they can do to win back that trust. Even reforms will not work at this point. Every move and decision of the government is looked at with suspicion and is rejected as “another ploy to deceive us.”

It is facing financial troubles. Mismanagement of the country’s income; widespread embezzlements; an 80 percent loss of its money value; and an overcommitment to helping Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and Yemen has drained the government’s cash. It is struggling to meet its monthly payroll. 

Sanctions will add pressure. Even without the sanctions, the IRI is in big trouble. The sanctions that started this week and the oil embargo starting in November will yet be another big financial hit and will speed up the downward spiral of its demise. 

The people no longer support this regime. In the previous round of sanctions imposed by the Obama administration, the government’s rhetoric was, “America is our enemy and wants to destroy us by sanctions. So if you are under financial pressure, it is the United State’s fault. Let us be united and suffer in silence so that we will not let our enemy USA win.” This approach no longer works. Today, the people say, “We are in trouble because of you and not the US. America is not our enemy, you are.” Many Iranians even support the sanctions saying, “Yes, we are willing to suffer a little more from sanctions because it will bring down the government faster!”

Flags at sunset Iran
Tehran skyline at sunset Photo by Borna Mirahmadian

Sunset is fast approaching for this regime. Its members will try to present a calm face to the world, but its day of power is almost over.


Next up: how the actions of the United States are hastening the fall of Iran’s government.